Mon 16th Jun, 2008
Interest rate dilemma for Bank of England
There are mounting fears that the Bank of England is losing its grip on the economy. A combination of rising food costs, fuel hikes and other price rises are stoking inflation which should mean raising interest rates for the Bank.
However as a result of the global credit crunch, banks are starting to hoard money instead of lending which is putting downward pressure on house prices and pushing the monetary policy committee (MPC) towards actually cutting the base rate. Even in this atmosphere of falling house prices, would-be buyers are finding it hard to secure a home loan to make a purchase they can now afford.
The credit squeeze has created much uncertainty in the economy and the nine MPC members seem very reluctant to actually cut interest rates. The members are facing a dilemma in that domestic inflation is heading in one direction while at the same time the international money market is actually going in the opposite direction.
When the Consumer Prices Index went up by 2.1% - which is above the government target of 2% - it would, under any other circumstances, signal an increase in interest rates in order to bring about higher borrowing costs. The interest rate at 5% is still an expansionary rate which will only fuel higher inflation, putting inflation up again to a more neutral level will hopefully neither dampen nor stoke the economy.
However the credit crunch is pulling for interest rates to come down. Uncertainty in the banking sector has prompted banks to cut lending to other institutions and instead hoard cash. Customers are reporting difficulty in securing personal loans, especially for debt consolidation, as lenders are either unable to access the funds, or simply unwilling.
Bank of England governor Mervyn King has warned the MPC that the credit crunch could get even worse in the coming year unless interest rates are cut.